LDF will have big victory: Bignewslive and Businesszoom survey

LDF will have big victory: Bignewslive and Businesszoom survey
Posted by
Story Dated : May 15, 2016

Thrissur: In a survey conducted by Bignewslive and Businesszoom predicts that LDF will come to power with 104 seats in Kerala. UDF will garner only 36 seats and BJP will not open their account in assembly elections 2016. Barring few central Kerala districts of Thrissur, Palakkad and Malappuram, where Muslim league is prominent, all other districts will be with LDF, the survey predicted.

The results of the survey – district vise:

Thiruvananthapuram: Total seats – 14; LDF – 12; UDF – 2

1 – Thiruvananthapuram: LDF; 2000-3000, 2 – Nemam: LDF; 2000-4000, 3 – Kazhakuttam: LDF; 1000-2000, 4 – Vattiyurkavu: LDF; 1000-3000, 5 – Aruvikkara: UDF; 500-1500, 6 – Kaattakada: LDF; 500-1500, 7 – Parassala: LDF; 2000-3000, 8 – Kovalam: LDF; 1000-2000, 9 – Neyyatinkara: LDF; 2000-3000, 10 – Nedumangaad: LDF; 2000-3000, 11 – Chirayinkeezhu: LDF; 2000-4000, 12 – Varkala: UDF; 500-1500, 13 – Aattingal: LDF; 20000-30000, 14 – Vamanapuram: LDF; 2000-5000.

Expert opinion: Minister V Sivakumar will lose the election. The presence of Biju Ramesh is crucial in Thiruvananthapuram as Biju may capture the votes of Tamil speaking people and ezhava community. LDF will increase their account to 12 from 6 at present. At Nemam, UDF may go down to third place. At Kazhakuttam, Vattiyurkavu and Nemam, the support of minority community voters will help LDF. A strong fight is expected at the LDF sitting seat at Kovalam.

Kollam: Total seats – 11; LDF – 11; UDF – 0

1 – Kollam: LDF; 2000-5000, 2 – Iravipuram: LDF; 6000-8000, 3 – Chathannoor: LDF; 12000-15000, 4 – Kundara: LDF; 14000-16000, 5 – Chadayamangalam: LDF; 25000-26000, 6 – Punaloor: LDF; 16000-19000, 7 – Pathanapuram: LDF; 10000-12000, 8 – Kottarakkara: LDF; 22000-25000, 9 – Kunnathur: LDF; 12000-15000, 10 – Karunagappilly: LDF; 4000-6000, 11 – Chavara: LDF; 500-1000.

Expert opinion: LDF will have a clean sweep in Kollam district. Prominent UDF leaders including minister Shibu Baby John will lose.

Pathanamthitta: Total seats – 5; UDF – 3; LDF – 2

1 – Thiruvalla: LDF; 1000-1500, 2 – Ranny: LDF; 1000-3000, 3 – Aranmula: UDF; 500-2000, 4 – Konny: UDF; 500-2000, 5 – Adoor: UDF; 3000-5000.

Expert opinion: Strong fight will take place at Aranmula and Konny.

Alappuzha: Total seats – 9; LDF – 7; UDF – 2

1 – Aroor: LDF; 10000-13000, 2 – Cherthala: LDF; 13000-16000, 3 – Alappuzha: LDF; 18000-25000, 4 – Ambalapuzha: LDF; 8000-10000, 5 – Kuttanadu: LDF; 1000-2000, 6 – Harippadu: UDF; 2000-5000, 7 – Kayamkulam: LDF; 2000-5000, 8 – Mavelikkara: LDF; 15000-18000, 9 – Chengannur: UDF; 500-1200.

Expert opinion: Chengannur becomes unpredictable with the entry of ex-Congress leader Sobhana George. Strong fight expected for Chennithala at Harippadu and for M Liju at Kayamkulam.

Kottayam: Total seats – 9; UDF – 6; LDF – 3

1 – Pala: UDF; 500-2000, 2 – Kaduthuruthi: UDF; 2000-3000, 3 – Vaikom: LDF; 10000-12000, 4 – Ettumanoor: LDF; 2000-3000, 5 – Kottayam: UDF; 1000-2000, 6 – Puthuppally: UDF; 8000-12000, 7 – Changanassery: UDF; 2000-4000, 8 – Kanjirappilly: UDF; 2000-3000, 9 – Poonjar: LDF; 1000-2000.

Expert opinion: Strong fight expected for UDF at Pala, Changanassery and Kaduthuruthi. LDF has strengthened at Oommen Chandy’s constituency Puthuppally and the Chief Minister’s lead will decrease considerably.

Idukki: Total seats – 5; LDF – 4; UDF – 1

1 – Devikulam: LDF; 4000-6000, 2 – Udumbanchola: LDF; 500-600, 3 – Thodupuzha: UDF; 14000-15000, 4 – Idukki: LDF; 1000-2000, 5 – Peerumedu: LDF; 5000-6000.

Expert opinion: idukki will favour LDF this time. Prominent UDF leaders like Roshy Augustine will lose.

Ernakulum: Total seats – 14; LDF – 7; UDF – 7

1 – Perumbavoor: UDF; 1000-2000, 2 – Angamali: LDF; 1000-1500, 3 – Aluva: UDF; 2000-3000, 4 – Kalamassery: UDF; 750-1500, 5 – Paravoor: UDF; 400-600, 6 – Vypin: LDF; 5000-8000, 7- Kochi: UDF; 3000-5000, 8 – Thripunithura: LDF; 3000-5000, 9 – Ernakulam: UDF; 500-1000, 10 – Thrikkakara: LDF; 600-1000, 11- Kunnathunadu: LDF; 2000-3000, 12 – Moovattupuzha: LDF; 500-1000, 13 – Kothamangalam: UDF; 1000-2000, 14 – Piravam: LDF; 1000-2000.

Expert opinion: Severe competition between UDF and LDF expected. Minister K Babu who is tainted with Bar related corruption may be pushed to third place. Strong fight anticipated in Ernakulam, kochi, Kalamassery and Paravoor.

Thrissur: Total seats – 13; LDF – 13; UDF – 0

1 – Chelakkara: LDF; 5000-10000, 2 – Kunnamkulam: LDF; 7000-10000, 3 – Guruvayoor: LDF; 2000-4000, 4 – Manaloor: LDF; 5000-8000, 5 – Wadakkangery: LDF; 2000-3000, 6 – Ollur: LDF; 1500-2500, 7 – Thrissur: LDF; 1000-2000, 8 – Nattika: LDF; 10000-12000, 9 – Kaipamangalam: LDF; 20000-25000, 10 – Iringalakuda: LDF; 500-1000, 11 – Puthukkad: LDF; 15000-20000, 12 – Chalakkudi: LDF; 1500-3000, 13 – Kodungallur: LDF; 2000-4000.

Expert opinion: Complete sweep for LDF. Prominent leaders like Thomas Unniadan, Padmaja and CP John will lose. At Puthukkad, UDF may be relegated to third place.

Palakkad: Total seats – 12; LDF – 10; UDF – 2

1 – Thrithala: UDF; 500-1000, 2 – Pattambi: LDF; 500-2000, 3 – Shornur: LDF; 10000-18000, 4 – Ottapalam: LDF; 8000-12000, 5 – Kongadu: LDF; 7000-11000, 6 – Mannarkad: UDF; 1000-2000, 7 – Malampuzha: LDF; 15000-20000, 8 – Palakkad: LDF; 1000-3000, 9 – Tharoor: LDF; 20000-22000, 10 – Chittoor: LDF; 1000-2000, 11 – Nenmara: LDF; 1500-2000, 12 – Alathoor: LDF; 15000-20000.

Expert opinion: Strong fight at Thrithala. At Palakkad and Malampuzha, UDF may be pushed to third place.

Malappuram: Total seats – 16; UDF – 11; LDF – 5

1 – Kondotti: UDF; 15000-20000, 2 – Eranadu: UDF; 3000-4000, 3 – Nilambur: LDF; 500-2000, 4 – Vandoor: UDF; 8000-10000, 5 – Mancheri: UDF; 15000-20000, 6 – Perinthalmanna: LDF; 1000-3000, 7 – Mankada: UDF; 2000-5000, 8 – Malappuram: UDF; 25000-30000, 9 – Vengara: UDF; 35000-36000, 10 – Vallikkunnu: UDF; 5000-8000, Thirurangadi: UDF; 25000-30000, 12 – Thanoor: LDF; 500-1000, 13 – Thirur: UDF; 5000-8000, 14 – Kottakkal: UDF; 20000-25000, 15 – Thavanoor: LDF; 5000-6000, 16 – Ponnani: LDF; 4000-5000.

Expert opinion: Sitting seats of UDF Nilambur, Perinthalmanna and Thanoor may be seized by LDF. Strong fight in Mankada and Thirur.

Kozhikode: Total seats – 13; LDF – 12; UDF – 1

1 – Vadakara: LDF; 500-1000; 2 – Kuttiadi: LDF; 2000-4000, 3 – Nadapuram: LDF; 5000-8000, 4 – Koyilandi: LDF; 3000-4000, 5 – Perambra: LDF; 10000-13000, 6 – Balussery: LDF; 4000-5000, 7 – Elathoor: LDF; 12000-15000, 8 – Kozhikode North: LDF; 10000-12000, 9 – Kozhikode South: LDF; 1000-1500, 10 – Beppoor: LDF; 3000-5000, 11 – Kunnamangalam: LDF; 500-1500, 12 – Koduvally: UDF; 2000-3000, 13 – Thiruvambadi: LDF; 2000-3000.

Expert opinion: LDF will make significant achievements in the district. Strong fight at Kunnamangalam, Kozhikode South and Beppoor.

Wayanadu: Total seats – 3; LDF – 3; UDF – 0

1 – Mananthavadi: LDF; 500-1500, 2 – Sulthan Batheri: LDF; 2000-4000, 3 – Kalppatta: LDF; 1000-2000.

Expert opinion: LDF may have a clean sweep. Prominent UDF leaders like Sreyas Kumar will lose.

Kannur: Total seats – 11; LDF – 11; UDF – 0

1 – Payyannor: LDF; 25000-35000, 2 – Kallyasseri: LDF; 35000-40000, 3 – Thaliparambu: LDF; 25000-28000, 4 – Irikkur: LDF; 1000-2000, 5 – Azhikode: LDF; 4000-5000, 6 – Kannur: LDF; 1000-2000, 7 – Dharmadam: LDF; 22000-25000, 8 – Thalasseri: LDF; 32000-38000, 9 – Koothuparambu: LDF; 3000-6000, 10 – Mattannur: LDF; 30000-35000, 11 – Peravoor: LDF; 1000-2000.

Expert opinion: Total dominance by LDF expected in the district. Ministers KC Joseph and KP Mohanan will lose.

Kasaragod: Total seats – 5; LDF – 4; UDF – 1

1 – Mancheswaram: UDF; 1000-2000, 2 – Kasaragod: LDF; 1000-2000; 3 – Uduma: LDF; 1000-2000, 4 – Kanjangad: LDF; 10000-12000, Thrikaripur: LDF; 10000-12000.

Expert opinion: Close contest in Mancheswaram, Kasaragod and Uduma. Mancheswaram and Kasaragod are prospective constituencies for BJP.

General Analysis: BJP may gain second place in 3 to 8 constituencies. UDF may be pushed to third place in 5 to 8 constituencies and LDF may be placed third in 1 to 3 constituencies. The most prominent tri-angular contest will take place at Kazhakootam, Vattiyurkavu, Aranmula, Chengannur, Thripunithura, Puthukad, Poonjar, Malampuzha, Palakkad, Kunnamangalam, Kasaragod and Mancheswararm.

Constituencies where close contests take place: Mancheswararm, Kasaragod, Uduma, Azhikode, Kannur, Koothuparambu, Peravoor, Mananthavadi, Vadakara, Kozhikode South, Kunnamangalam, Thanoor, Nilambur, Mankada, Perinthalmanna, Palkkad, Thrithala, Wadakkanchery, Irinjalakkuda, Thrissur, Perumbavoor, Kochi, Kothamangalam, Paravoor, Thripunithura, Movattupuzha, Kalamassery, Pala, Piravam, Udumbanchola, Ettumanoor, Chengannur, Aranmula, Ranni, Chavara, Varkala, Vattiyurkavu, Kazhakoottam, Kattakada, Aruvikkara, Parassala, Neyyatinkara, Thiruvananthapuram and Nemam.

As per the close finish in the above mentioned constituencies there could be a variation in gains and losses of UDF and LDF by 5 to 10 seats. But according to Bignews the survey result is 90% appropriate.

The main questions asked in the survey and percentage of responses:

Is there an anti-government feeling in Kerala?

Yes: 66.4; No:16.7; NA: 16.9

Do you believe in the corruption allegations against minister?

Yes: 65; No: 24.1; NA: 11.9

Could the government curb fundamentalism?

Yes: 25; No: 70.9; NA: 4.1

Do you believe in the development claim of UDf government?

Yes: 20.9; No: 55.4; NA: 23.7

Was there any serious attempt from the government to curb violence against women and children?

Yes: 18.1; No: 59; NA: 22.9

Do you believe in the ‘Anti-development’ propaganda against the left?

Yes: 18.1; No: 59; NA: 22.9

Will ‘Saritha’ and ‘Solar’ issues have an impact?

Yes: 46; No: 34.1; NA: 19.9

Will BJP become an alternative?

Yes: 17.9; No: 70.4; NA: 11.7

Do you believe Pinarayi Vijayan is a culprit in Lavlin case?

Yes: 40.9; No: 49.5; NA: 9.6

Could liquor police reduce liquor consumption?

Yes: 39.1; No: 40.9; NA: 20

Will it do harm to UDF for placing corruption tainted minister as the candidates against the interest of VM Sudheeran?

Yes: 60.5; No: 30.9; NA: 8.6

Will controversial land deals do affect UDF?

Yes: 56; No: 40.7; NA: 3.3

Will BDJS alliance help BJP?

Yes: 26; No: 51.2; NA: 22.8

Is the efficiency of candidate important while casting the vote?

Yes: 42.5; No: 30.3; NA: 27.2

Is the prominence of party alliance important while casting the vote?

Yes: 63: No: 20.3; NA: 16.7

Do you expectations in youngsters?

Yes: 70.4; No: 21.2; NA: 8.4

Do you believe that Congress and BJP are having an understanding any constituencies?

Yes: 40.8; No: 39.2; NA: 20

Comments